The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.6%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to other index models
Clinton can currently count on 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 44.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 7.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.