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Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead


The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.6%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results compared to other index models

Clinton can currently count on 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 44.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 7.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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