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Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead


The Issue-index model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 55.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 44.8%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other index models

Clinton is currently at 53.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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