Holbrook & DeSart model: Clinton is in the lead

The Holbrook & DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 46.6%. In comparison, on October 29 Trump was still predicted to win 46.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 50.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 44.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 9.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Holbrook & DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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