Goucher College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Goucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% plan to cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20 with 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.4%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Goucher College poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 66.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.