Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 46.0% of participants will give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 26 and October 27. The sample size was 500 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.3 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 50.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Florida. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.