Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 50.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 1000 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.8% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.0 point above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.