Clinton with negligible lead in new IBD/TIPP poll
By IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
IBD/TIPP poll results
Of those who responded, 45.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from October 24 to October 29 among 1039 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. In the most recent IBD/TIPP poll on October 28 Clinton received 52.9%, while Trump received only 47.1%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.5 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.
