Boston Globe/Suffolk released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Boston Globe/Suffolk poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 24 to October 26 among 500 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.4 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 69.5% for Clinton and 30.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Massachusetts has Clinton at 67.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Boston Globe/Suffolk poll Clinton's poll average is 2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 65.6% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, Polly's prediction is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is negligible.