KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 56.0% of interviewees indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 15 with 725 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 63.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. In comparison to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.