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Big-issue model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Big-issue model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 50.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models can contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points better.

The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 3.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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