PPIC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPIC poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 14 to October 23 with 1024 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently achieves 63.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. In comparison to her numbers in the PPIC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.1 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, the PollyVote is 3.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.