Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 48.0% of participants intend to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 25 and October 26. The sample size was 550 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. On August 28 Clinton obtained only 48.3% in the Emerson poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Relative to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.2 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.