Pew published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Pew poll results
Of those who answered the question, 50.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from October 20 to October 25 among 2120 participants. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-2.2 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.8% for Clinton and 46.2% for Trump. In the latest Pew poll on August 3 Clinton received 54.8%, while Trump received only 45.2%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Pew poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.1 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.