WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
The results show that 57.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 16 among 502 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.4 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Massachusetts has Clinton at 67.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 65.6% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.