Goucher College published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Goucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of participants will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% will vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20 with 514 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. Compared to her numbers in the Goucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 66.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.