Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Siena poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 17 among 611 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 62.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New York. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.3% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.