Results of a new poll administered by NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants intend to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 23 and October 25. The sample size was 824 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may include large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 52.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the NY Times/SienaNY Times/Siena poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.