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Jerome model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.6% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 48.4%.

In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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