The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be regarded with caution, as they often incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton currently achieves 53.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.6 percentage points better.
The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.