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Holbrook & DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead


The Holbrook & DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 53.3% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 46.7%. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to collect only 53.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 50.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Holbrook & DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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