ABC News/Washington Post published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
ABC News/Washington Post poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from October 24 to October 27, among a random sample of 1148 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump. For comparison: 52.6% was gained by Clinton in the ABC News/Washington Post poll on October 26, for Trump this result was only 47.4%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the ABC News/Washington Post poll Clinton's poll average is 1.6 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.3 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.