Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of interviewees are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 1000 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. To compare: Only 54.6% was obtained by Clinton in the Emerson poll on April 11, for Trump this number was 45.5%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.8% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.0 point above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.