Clinton with narrow advantage in IBD/TIPP poll
By IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
IBD/TIPP poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from October 23 to October 28, among a random sample of 1013 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.1 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. On October 27 Clinton received only 51.7% in the IBD/TIPP poll and Trump received 48.3%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.3 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.0 point above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.
