Clinton leads in Maryland by 29 points in latest OpinionWorks poll
By OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 30 with 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.5%. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 66.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.
