KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who replied, 56.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 15 with 725 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 63.7%. Compared to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.