In today's update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will garner 53.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.1% for Trump.
Looking at the component methods
There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Citizen forecasts predict a vote share of 54.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 58.2% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 4.9 percentage points.
The expectation polls forecast of 54.1% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather high compared to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 54.9% for Barack Obama.