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California: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 65.5% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will end up with 34.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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