IBD released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 23 to October 28 with 1013 respondents. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they can contain large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. To compare: Only 51.7% was gained by Clinton in the IBD poll on October 27, for Trump this number was 48.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 53.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the IBD poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.0 point above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.