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Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest IBD/TIPP poll

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IBD/TIPP published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

IBD/TIPP poll results
45

Clinton

42

Trump

The results show that 45.0% of participants would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted via phone from October 22 to October 27, among a random sample of 973 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.2 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. On October 26 Clinton obtained only 51.2% in the IBD/TIPP poll and Trump obtained 48.8%.

Results compared to other polls

An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.2 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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