IBD/TIPP published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
IBD/TIPP poll results
The results show that 45.0% of participants would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from October 22 to October 27, among a random sample of 973 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.2 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. On October 26 Clinton obtained only 51.2% in the IBD/TIPP poll and Trump obtained 48.8%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.2 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is negligible.