Utah: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead
The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 38.3% for Clinton, and 61.7% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to win only 37.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.8% of the two-party vote in Utah. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.