Texas Tribune/YouGovTexas Tribune/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Texas were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Texas Tribune/YouGovTexas Tribune/YouGov poll results
The results show that 42.0% of interviewees would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 14 to October 23 among 959 likely voters.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Texas sees Trump at 52.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point higher than his respective numbers in the Texas Tribune/YouGovTexas Tribune/YouGov poll.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Texas. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.2 points above his polling numbers.