Vanderbilt University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Vanderbilt University poll results
Of those who responded, 33.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 19 and October 2. The sample size was 1000 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump. On May 11 Clinton obtained 44.3% in the Vanderbilt University poll and Trump obtained only 55.7%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is negligible.