Results of a new poll carried out by St. Louis Post/Dispatch were distributed. The poll asked participants from Missouri for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
St. Louis Post/Dispatch poll results
Of those who responded, 42.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 24 to October 26. A total of 625 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 54.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Missouri. Relative to his numbers in the St. Louis Post/Dispatch poll Trump's poll average is 1.3 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Missouri. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.1 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.