South Carolina: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 43.8% of the two-party vote share in South Carolina, while Trump will end up with 56.2%. In comparison, on October 24 Trump was still predicted to collect 56.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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