Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead
The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.2% for Clinton, and 46.8% for Trump in Pennsylvania. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was predicted to achieve 46.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain large biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Pennsylvania.