Results of a new poll carried out by Quinnipiac were released. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically achieved similar voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 48.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 16 among 624 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump. On August 7 Clinton received only 47.9% in the Quinnipiac poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote is 1.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.