Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Ohio, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 20 and October 22. The sample size was 1971 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-2.2 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's forecast is 3.0 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.