Ohio: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.3% for Clinton, and 47.7% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on October 24 Trump was still predicted to gain 48.8% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have often achieved similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is regarded critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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