CNN-ORC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
CNN-ORC poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 50.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 15. A total of 744 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-3.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.5% for Clinton and 51.6% for Trump. In the latest CNN-ORC poll on March 6 Clinton obtained 53.8%, while Trump obtained only 46.2%.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.3 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.