Ohio: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.2% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to end up with 49.3% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where Republicans and Democrats have historically won similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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