Results of a new poll administered by NBC-WSJ-Marist were published. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often achieved similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
The results show that the two candidates are on equal standing, each with 45.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 12. A total of 724 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share. In the most recent NBC-WSJ-Marist poll on August 7 Clinton obtained only 46.9%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% and Trump 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is significant.