New York: Overwhelming advantage for Clinton in Siena poll
By Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 17. A total of 611 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 62.5%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.3% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.
