Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically won similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 45.0% of respondents would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 10 and October 12. The sample size was 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. On August 27 Clinton obtained only 50.0% in the Emerson poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.