Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
New Hampshire is traditionally a battleground state, where the two major political parties have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is regarded important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 23 to October 25 with 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.9 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New Hampshire has Clinton at 52.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.