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Nevada: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, and 48.6% for Trump in Nevada. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.8% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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