Montana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 40.7% for Clinton, and 59.3% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 40.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Montana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.