Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who responded, 39.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 50.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 23 to October 25 among 2559 likely voters. The error margin is +/-1.9 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.2% for Trump. To compare: 44.7% was obtained by Clinton in the Remington Research (R) poll on September 2, for Trump this number was only 55.3%.
Results vs. other polls
Trump currently runs at 54.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Missouri. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Missouri. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.3 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is significant.