Methods completely agree on the election outcome

PollyVote currently forecasts a national major-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are Citizen forecasts with a vote share of 54.1% for Clinton. With a vote share of 58.2% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

A trend in the prediction markets, the index models and the aggregated polls in favor of Clinton has taken shape. The index models have seen this trend for the longest time so far, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points for Clinton's vote share in the last 12 days. Trump has however continuously become more popular in expert surveys and expectation polls. Upward trend has persisted in expert surveys, he was able to win 2.5 percentage points during the past 27 days.

The econometric models forecast of 50.4% for the Democratic candidate is rather high in comparison to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 52.9% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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