Results of a new poll conducted by WBUR/MassINC were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 13 to October 16, among a random sample of 502 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Massachusetts sees Clinton at 67.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.8 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, the PollyVote is 1.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is insignificant.