Jerome model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.6% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 48.4%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to win only 51.3% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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